Special Tropical Weather Statement
Published: Thursday, July 30th, 2015 @ 11:54 am
By: Stan Deatherage ( More Entries )
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I cannot believe I am sending this out, however, the Five "P's" dictate that I send this out to keep you Informed. After discussing this with NWS personnel there is still a lack of confidence in the path and intensity of this low pressure system information. The fact they canceled the Hurricane hunter aircraft mission for today shows how slow the intensity is changing. This could be the earliest a Tropical event is named in weather history. I will let the message give you the official party line from the Hurricane Center:
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 800 AM EDT WED MAY 6 2015
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
Disorganized showers and thunderstorms extending over portions of Florida, the Bahamas, and adjacent waters are associated with an upper-level trough and a weak surface low located over the northwestern Bahamas. The aircraft reconnaissance mission scheduled for this afternoon has been cancelled. However, conditions are expected to become gradually more favorable for development over the next day or so while the system moves slowly northward. A subtropical or tropical cyclone could form by Thursday or Friday, and interests along the southeast coast of the United States should monitor the progress of this system through the weekend. The next Special Tropical Weather Outlook will be issued on this system by 8 PM EDT today. For additional information, see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.
Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent
Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent
The main impacts of the Nor'easter could be heavy rainfall and strong wind gust, with possible sea level rise with minor inundation, for an extended period of time if the storm slows down or stalls off the North Carolina coast. Let's not get caught with our pants down on this one. Please let Lisa know if you are not going to be available for an activation of the EOC this weekend, if necessary, and whom your replacement will be, with cell phone number, for our normal EOC staff.
Thank You for what you do for the citizens of Beaufort County.
Coordinator, Beaufort County Emergency Services
1420 Highland Drive
Washington, NC 27889
(252)946-2046 Office (252) 975-6802 Fax firstname.lastname@example.org